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Friday 8 February 2019

OVERVIEW OF INDIAN ORAL CARE MARKET

OVERVIEW OF INDIAN ORAL CARE MARKET 



Until not too long ago, there was a tendency to look down on everything Indian.

Consumers who went out to buy products generally gravitated towards the international at best and anything that even sounded remotely international at worst.

The general conclusion was that if it is international, then it must be superior; if it was Indian, then it must be mediocre.

The biggest transformation of the last half-decade is a new-found pride in a number of things Indian.

Let me talk of what is happening in Oral Care space. The emergence of a deeply Indian brand like Patanjali from virtually nowhere is more than a sign of product success; the robust growth of ITC''s foods and FMCG businesses are pivoted around a business model that extends from farm to fork; the rapid strides made by Emami indicate a growing traction for ayurveda-based FMCG products; the rising trend for Dabur indicates a widening room for homegrown success.

Besides, there are a number of other developments at play: a growing scale achieved by these Indian companies, the manufacture of products that reconcile world-class standards with relevant customization, the growing penetration of these products into rural India, the engagement of home-grown role models to endorse these products and increasing competitiveness. The result is that most of these companies are not merely content to play for incremental market share; through the introduction of innovative products, they are keen to create markets that never existed.

The result of this transformation in national identity and pride is captured in the response of Indian and Foreign consumers about everything Indian and slowly to emerge from the outsourcing shadow of a global multinational. And increasingly the Indian companies are taking on international brands.''

The bottom-line is that it is increasingly inconceivable that the second most populous consumption market in the world would need to depend on global brands for its everyday needs. On the contrary, the time has come for home-grown brands to capture a large slice of the Indian market, leverage the prevailing economies of scale and emerge as successful global brands in their own right.


It would be foolhardy to assume that a growing respect for Indian brands will raise the level of water for all ships.

In an Indian FMCG space populated by a variety of national and international brands, success will be derived through a convergence of diverse competencies.

One, a word-class standard. 

An increasing number of consumers will seek to buy products not because they are Indian, but because they are outstanding and Indian....in that order. And here, I must add that the time has come when a number of Indian FMCG products are not just as good as international brands; they are better.

Take the instance of Patanjali''s toothpaste; in the brief tenure of a couple of years, this single product has extensively transformed a decades-old habit of using white toothpaste into a respect for herb-based brown paste. What used to be so down market until not too long ago is now considered acceptable.

Two, future-readiness.

Indian brands will need to invest in research with the objective to create world-beating products instead of conventional reverse-engineering. Besides, Indian brands will need to plan infrastructure from a decadal perspective instead of going back to the drawing board every couple of years.

Three, advertising and promotion. 

Indian companies will need to extend beyond merely putting products on shelf-spaces; they will need to create world-class brands that inspire trust and loyalty.

Four, wider portfolio.

Indian companies will need to put a wide complement of products in the marketplace, so that the success of one feeds on the off take of another -and vice versa.



Overview

The Indian FMCG companies in Oral Care will respond with speed and sensitivity to the great Indian consumption boom, not only as an anonymous back-end for some of the most visible Indian brands but as a proud visible player capturing the attractive upside of the Indian consumption journey.

Happy Investing

Friday 1 February 2019

India is Changing for the Better

India is Changing for the Better



It’s difficult to believe India is making progress when we travel on potholed roads every day. We may not see this change clearly but it is real…and it’s happening all around us.

Here are just some examples…

Today, India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35.
India is the world’s fastest growing internet market adding close to 10 million daily active internet users every month.
India is set to become the world’s second biggest smartphone market this year, overtaking the US.
India ranks third in the world in terms of installed steel capacity.
India is the world’s fourth biggest auto market.
The net equity investment by mutual funds between FY16 to FY18 was greater than the aggregate investment of the last 18 years!

Whether we are aware of it or not, we’re well on our way to becoming the third biggest economy in the world by 2030.

What does that mean in practical terms?

I’m talking about more jobs, bigger pay checks, and financial security.

City slums could be bulldozed, and replaced by modern apartment complexes.

Slum-dwellers could move into new homes, with running water and electricity.

India’s barefoot entrepreneurs could start scalable businesses.

More jobs, more money.

The size of the Indian middle class – with money to spend – will shoot up dramatically.

But most Indians have no idea what’s coming!

And therein lies the great opportunity for you.

When all this becomes common knowledge, the stock market would have already shot up. There would be few opportunities in the market at that time...

But the investor who catches these trends early, will create life-changing wealth for himself.

Determining if you are financially ready to buy your first house


Determining if you are financially ready to buy your first house





Before buying your first house, assess the affordability and future serviceability of any loan you take




Ravi N Rao, a software engineer from Hyderabad got married 5 years back to Swathi Rao, a banker. Ravi and Swathi are now 34 and 31 years old respectively. After two years of their marriage, they decided to buy a house. The house cost them Rs54 lakh and they took a joint home loan of Rs45 lakh to fund it. At that time, their combined salary was about Rs1.1 lakh (Rs65,000 and Rs45,000 respectively).




Fast forward to now and the couple is expecting their first child in a few months. Swathi has decided to take a back seat in her career and will be a stay-at-home parent to take care of the child. But it's not going to be an easy road ahead. As they transition from a double income no kids household to single income household with a child, they are worried about servicing the EMI, which is about Rs42,500.




"At the time of buying the house, we did not think about such a situation. We exhausted all our savings for the down payment while buying the house," said Ravi. The couple is not an aberration; owning real estate is considered a proud purchase by many households which is normally funded through loans. House is one of the biggest investments you make, but it may not always be the best investment. You need to assess this asset class on the metric of affordability and future serviceability of any loan you take. Here are few factors that should help you decide if you are ready.




Analysing your financial life



Unlike financial assets that are liquid-you can redeem your mutual fund units and realize the money in a few days-real estate is not liquid. It can take days to months to find a buyer and the ensuing hassle to sell off the property really makes it a sticky asset. Any financial plan starts with ensuring a solid emergency corpus that will take care of any unforeseen circumstances. "One should ensure that they have at least 6-9 months of emergency funding in liquid options."


Then comes the short-term goals that you may have and think about how it may impact EMI payments. Say, having a new born may change priorities and that may impact income of the household. However, the home loan EMIs will continue to accrue; so have this discussion now rather than later. "The first thing one needs to do is to estimate the liquidity, contingency and funds for near-term goals."  Make a list of your expenses-both monthly and annual. Also, note down the near term (up to 3-5 years) goals and funds you need for these goals.




Affordability



Whether you can afford the loan or not is a serious question you need to ponder upon. Your current financial position without touching your emergency corpus or disturbing your other financial goals-shortand long-term-should allow you to make a decent down payment. "One needs to see whether they have the 25% upfront amount. Ideally, the higher this amount the better." You will be more comfortable if you can afford to make the contribution of 40% to 50% of the property value as down payment. Then comes the EMIs. A good thumb rule is to ensure that your EMI should not take away more than 40% of your take home salary. You need to figure out how you will be able to service the loan in case of emergency like a job loss or increase in expenses. "A stretch of up to 50% of one's post-tax monthly income in EMIs for the first 1-3 years is manageable provided one makes up in building liquid financial assets in later years."  Besides taking the huge loan, the other mistake that Rao made was making pre-payment of home loan as and when the couple had some funds.




Living in the house



Then comes the ultimate question of whether you will actually use the house to live in. "This is important as people these days are mobile and they go to other locations nationally or internationally in pursuance of the career." If they are not certain, it may not make much sense buying a house-for they will have a home in one city and they may move to another and will have to rent out.


If you are not planning to live in the same city at least for another 5-7 years, it is better to stay on rent. "If you feel that there is a strong chance of relocating , then factor how you would be able to bear the rental cost in the new location and EMI servicing together."  Selling the house and again buying another house in the new city would not be feasible as it involves lot of efforts; transaction cost—stamp duty, registration fee and brokerage—is also very high.


If you decide to let out the house, "you may not always be able to get a tenant immediately. Most housing complexes have high maintenance costs and one should factor that into monthly cash flow planning."  It could also be very time consuming to maintain a house in another city.


Buying a house can't come at the cost of other important goals like your child's education and your own retirement neither should it impact your lifestyle significantly.


"Home loan EMI is one of the biggest breakers of passions such as travel, entrepreneurship and other interests. Buying a home should not mean having to work in a highly unsatisfying job or missing out on investing for your kids only because of the EMI pressure. It can also set off your time to retirement by a large number of years."  So, besides servicing the home loan EMI, one should have enough savings to invest for other goals and expenses.
 

Happy Investing
Source: Valueresearchonline.net

We should welcome volatility


We should welcome volatility


Don't complain about volatility! For equity investors, it's the best possible thing


What is the opposite of fragile? That's a question that Nassim Nicholas Taleb always asks when he is talking about his book Antifragile. Audiences always respond with words like 'strong' or 'robust' or 'unbreakable'. Then Taleb asks, 'What is the opposite of positive?' Obviously, people answer 'negative'. 'Why didn't you say that the opposite of positive is zero? If the opposite of fragile is robust, then the opposite of positive should be zero. This always needs further explanation.




If, as Taleb explains, you are shipping a glass object, you would write on the package 'Handle Carefully'. However, if you are shipping something made of iron, you won't write anything, because an iron object is strong and robust and unlikely to break if the package is dropped. But that's not the true opposite of fragile. If your package contains something which is the real opposite of fragile, then you would write on it, 'Please Mishandle'. Because if fragile things are those that are harmed by any kind of shock or by adversity, then the opposite of fragile must be those things that actually benefit from shock or adversity.




On first reading, that sounds absurd. Surely, while there are things that can resist shock, there can't be anything that will actually benefit from it. However, once Taleb starts explaining it, and once you start thinking about what he says, one realises that actually, there are many, many things that are the true opposite of fragile.




When we skim headlines about equity investing, we get the impression that volatility is absolutely the worst thing for investors. Like for the last few month, the stock markets have been quite volatile and anchors of business TV channels generally have long faces. The headline-writers always assume that since the equity markets are oscillating sharply, dropping on more days than they rise on, it's a bad time for investors. And surely, there must be investors for whom that is true. The crowds of punters whose success or failure depends on correctly predicting what will happen from one day to the next must be suffering.




But is there any investment strategy that is available to the ordinary saver, which would bring in the gains of equity investing, and yet actually gain from volatility? Is there an antifragile investing strategy that you and I can use?




Of course there is, and it's something that smart mutual fund investors are already practicing. I'm taking, of course, about SIP (Systematic Investment Plan). SIP is based on the idea of averaging your investment cost over time and it's the simplest and yet most effective technique of benefitting from volatility. You invest a constant amount every month and keep doing it for a long time. When the markets drop, stock prices are low and so are the NAVs of equity mutual funds. Therefore, the sum you invest gets you more units of the fund. Eventually, when you redeem your money, all units fetch you an equal amount. However, your gains are higher because of the volatile periods, when you were able to invest at a low price. That's antifragile--actual benefit from volatility.




SIP gains depend on the long-term, gradual rise in equity prices, punctuated by periods when the markets is volatile or it drops. It's a supremely antifragile investing strategy. You make more money precisely because markets are volatile. If, hypothetically (it never actually happens), the equity markets rose by a constant amount every day, then there would be no advantage in SIP investing.




SIPs are essentially a psychological trick to keep investing regularly, regardless of whether the markets are down or up. It's the routine that locks investors into an inertia which turns out to be of benefit to them. The antifragile nature is a hidden advantage that brings the real benefit over time.




When one look at investing with this fragile-antifragile framework in mind, it's immediately obvious that short-term trading of equities (or derivatives) is the ultimate in fragility and long-term SIPs is the ultimate in antifragility.
 

Happy Investing
Source: Valueresearchonline.net

Budget 2019: Three Cheers for Piyush Goyal


Budget 2019: Three Cheers for Piyush Goyal



The virtuous cycle is completing itself. The payoff from GST, demo and tax reforms is being reaped by those who need it most


The lesson is there for all to see now: if taxes are paid honestly by those at the top (willingly or unwillingly), then the poor and the middle class can reap the rewards of progress. The huge increase in the Section 87b tax rebate has pushed a chunk--around 3 crore people--below the tax threshold. Effectively, with some tax-planning, I doubt whether anyone with a salary of less than Rs 60-65,000 a month will pay any income tax at all.


Amusingly, stand-in Finance Minister Piyush Goyal gave some tax-planning tips right there in the budget speech. This sounded a bit strange but then, being a CA by training, and an All-India rank-holder at that, I guess he couldn't resist the temptation to start giving advice on how to pay less tax! Certainly a pleasant change from the stern lawyer finance ministers we have been used to.


As Mr Goyal himself pointed out, add your PF deduction, insurance and other section 80C investments and the tax free threshold is up to Rs 6.5 lakh. If you can squeeze out a few more savings, you could be at Rs 7 lakh. Then, on top of that (this part the FM didn't spell out, obviously), most private sector employers would step in to restructure salaries which are slightly above the exempt limit. All in all, the big chunk of lower and the middle-middle class is well and truly exempted from paying any tax at all.


From my perspective of a savings cheerleader, I see another bonanza here. For taxpayers who are in the Rs 5 lakh to Rs 7 lakh range before deductions, there is now a much stronger incentive to make tax saving investments. In the low-inflation environment--which Mr Goyal pointed to with great pride--it's relatively less difficult to start saving. In any case, tax incentives play a strong role in getting middle-class Indians to save, and starting early is the best possible thing.


From a personal finance perspective, another interesting measure is the extension of the Section 54 capital gains exemption that one gets from repurchasing one house to two. Nowadays, at a certain stage in their lives, many people need to essentially exchange one older (or larger) house for two smaller or newer ones. Up till now, capital gains exemption would be available on only the proportion of the proceeds that goes in to one of those. It's encouraging to see these kind of nuts-and-bolts fine-tuning in the tax laws that results in substantially more money in the pockets of savers. The fact that this saving is available only once in a lifetime is just the kind of justified limitation that ensures that it can't be abused by those in the real estate business. The same goes for the exemption on the tax exemption on a second self-occupied house. As the FM pointed out, these are now real middle class situations, and not just a problem of the rich.


In fact, looking back at the various things that the budget could have had, one can see the fine line it treads politically. There's no doubt that this is an election budget and it's giveaways--both in terms of fresh expenditures as well as revenue foregone--are done with an eye on votes. That's something you expect in a democracy.


However, there are two things here that have the Modi stamp. One, the bang-to-buck ratio is huge. For example, for the Section 87b hike, 3 crore people get the benefit--but the benefit stays limited to those in the first tax bracket. And two, there is great care taken to not do anything that can be seen as pro-rich. I've been writing these last few weeks for the rollback of last years' capital gains tax on equity investments. However, in the context of the budget that was presented today, it's entirely understandable that such a thing was not possible. At this point of time, you can't be seen to roll back a tax that is paid mostly by the rich. That's the reality. All things considered, there's nothing to complain about, and everything to cheer about

 

Happy Investing
Source:Valueresearchonline.net