Translate

Saturday 24 June 2017

Impact of GST on home buyers and renters


Impact of GST on home buyers and renters

 

It has been trumpeted as the biggest tax reform since Independence. It probably is. The Goods and Services Tax, or GST, is a tax reform that has been on the cards for more than a decade. A feather is Modi's cap is that it will become a reality under his leadersip.

In the current tax regime, state governments tax sale of goods but not services. The central government taxes manufacturing and services but not wholesale and retail trade. GST is a destination-based tax that brings all indirect taxes under one roof.

Indirect taxes can be either origin based (levied where goods and services are produced) or destination based (levied where goods and services and consumed). The former is also known as production tax and the latter as consumption tax. In other words, all indirect taxes levied by the central and state governments across the country get subsumed into a comprehensive GST.

Let's look at the impact on GST when dealing with real estate.

Taxes paid when buying a house

1) Service Tax Payable to the central government. This charge is only applicable for under construction properties. It is levied on the total price paid for the purchase of an under-construction property.

2) Value Added Tax, or VAT Payable to the state government. This charge is only applicable for under construction properties. VAT is typically levied on the sale of goods and is applicable for house property, as it involves the transfer of ownership rights from the seller to the buyer.

3) Stamp Duty Payable to the state government.

Understanding abatement in service tax

When buying a property, the purchaser pays the builder for the cost of the land as well as the construction service provided. But service tax can only be levied on services and not on the sale of goods or property. So service tax cannot be levied on the value of land but only on the construction cost.

In case it is difficult to show the cost of immovable property separately from the cost of services, there is an abatement scheme wherein tax is levied only on a small portion of the total amount.

For houses under Rs 1 crore and less than 2,000 sq. ft. in area:

Abatement: 75%

Service Tax levied on: 25% of the total purchase price (cost of land + construction) Service Tax of 15% on 25% = 3.75%

This is levied on the total price paid for the purchase of an under-construction property.

For houses Rs 1 crore and above, and above 2,000 sq. ft. in area:

Abatement: 70%

Service Tax levied on: 30% of the total purchase price (cost of land + construction) Service Tax of 15% on 30% = 4.5%

This is levied on the total price paid for the purchase of an under-construction property.

Service Tax and VAT will be replaced by Central GST and State GST whereas stamp duty stays unchanged as it is out of purview of GST.

Once GST gets implemented, whether the cost of houses will come down or increase, will depend on two factors:

The rate at which GST is charged

Whether there will be any abatement or not. If the abatement rules do not apply under the GST regime, the applicable tax rate could shoot up dramatically.

The consensus is that the rate will be around 12% (under the new indirect tax regime, there will be four slabs: 5%, 12%, 18%, 28%).

According to a report in Mint, real estate lobby group National Real Estate Development Council (Naredco) and Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India (Credai) recommended to the finance minister that the GST rate should not be kept higher than 12% for the real estate sector: “The GST rate on the consideration excluding value of land should not be more than 12% covering both CGST (central GST) and SGST (state GST) after providing credit for all the inputs... Anything above this rate would only result in continued deceleration of this industry and also compromise GDP (gross domestic product) growth.
So what will be the ultimate impact of GST?

Though the goods and services tax (GST) tax structure has been announced, there is still a lot of conjecture about which tax rate will be applicable to the real estate and construction industry.

The tax rate is not decided yet and it would be premature to comment on it at this point. The expectations are for real estate to be in the 12% bracket. However, the GST rate is not the only important factor. The abatement rules as applicable under the service tax regime and the input tax credit facility for developers will determine if the effective tax incidence on real estate is lower or higher under GST.

The government has offered some clarity on the abatement rules for under-construction houses and input tax credit benefits for developers.

 Impact on residential real estate

Sales are not just impacted by tax rates but also by sentiment, and also on account of the trust deficit which the Real Estate Regulation & Development Act - or RERA - now seeks to address. That said, if costs do go higher under GST, the lower prevailing current home loan rates could assuage the impact to some extent.

Buyers, investors and developers are understandably worried that the final ticket size of homes will increase even if the government levies GST at 12%, when compared to the existing service tax rates.

 Developers are still awaiting further clarity on this, but they know that it is in the interest of their business to keep ticket sizes range-bound. Evolving market dynamics have already brought about a change in the manner in which developers work. Staying customer-centric and delivery-focused to create a differentiated identity will be the most logical and likely method for them to adopt.

Impact on rental housing

Rental housing would naturally be impacted if the government were to tax residential leases under GST. The common apprehension is that if this were to happen, the rental housing segment may see a huge slump over the medium-term, since residential leases are currently not taxed at all.

 Here, it is pertinent to note that residential leasing is an inherent demand which will not evaporate merely by higher taxes. Certainly, we may be looking at a rental stagnation or marginal decline as the market readjusts to the new dynamics which GST will infuse. However, rental housing demand is sticky and end-user-driven in nature, so we are definitely not looking at a major slump in this segment because of GST even if it does tax residential leases.

That said, rental yields in major cities could certainly moderate if GST is levied on rental housing. In India, rental yields in housing are quite modest at around 2-4% on an average. Rents may either hold steady or decline marginally due to increase in housing stock.

However, it is also true that most investors in the residential sector do not invest for rental yields but rather for the capital value appreciation, so reduced rental yields would not independently impact sentiment.

Impact on commercial real estate

With the existing service tax for commercial leases at 15%, GST would be likely neutral overall (at 12% slight savings, and at 18% slight increase).

Impact on affordable housing

Affordable housing is currently exempt from service tax. It is likely that the government may come out with a clarification regarding the applicability or continuing exemption under the GST.

Impact on renters

The Central GST (CGST) bill states that any tenancy, lease, license to occupy land, or easement will be considered as supply of service.

 Any lease or letting out of a residential, industrial or commercial building for commercial purposes – wholly or partly – will also constitute a supply of services. Simultaneously, the sale of land or building (except the sale of under-construction buildings) will not be treated as either supply of goods or services. The sale of land and buildings will be out of the purview of GST, and such transactions will continue to attract stamp duty.

Once GST comes into effect, the leasing of land and buildings - as well as home loan EMIs paid by those who purchase under-construction apartments - will attract the applicable tax rate. Depending upon the tax rate that gets announced for real estate, the effect could be higher or lower than today.
Similarly, the final applicable tax rate would define whether those living in rented residential properties end up with much higher or slightly higher rental outgo, as the additional tax to be paid by the landlord will get passed onto the lessee. Under the current regime, service tax is levied on rents paid for commercial and industrial units, and not for residential units.




Happy investing
Source:Morningstar.com


Bank Passbooks to have more transaction details after RBI directive; 11 things you need to know


Bank Passbooks to have more transaction details after RBI directive; 11 things you need to know
 
To enhance better customer service, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has asked commercial banks to provide adequate details of all the transactions in the passbooks of all its customers. With this, RBI makes it easy for account holders to keep a check of all their transactions in just a glance. The Apex Bank in its statement said, “It has come to our notice that many banks still do not provide adequate details of the transactions in the passbooks and/ or statements of account to enable the account holders to cross-check them”.
The RBI further stated that in the interest of better customer service, it has been decided that banks shall at a minimum provide the relevant details in respect of entries in the accounts. The RBI said that many banks still do not provide adequate details of the transactions in the passbooks and/ or statements of account to enable account holders cross-check them.
Here are 11 things you need to know under the new directive to Banks by RBI
  1. Under the new directive, Banks have to give information about ‘deposit insurance cover’ along with the limit of coverage up front in the passbooks.
  2. As per details on RBI’s website, it is applicable to all commercial banks including branches of foreign banks functioning in India are insured by the deposit insurance and credit guarantee corporation (DICGC).
  3. In the event of a bank failure, DICGC protects bank deposits. Each depositor in a bank is insured up to a maximum of Rs. 1 lakh for both principal and interest amount held by him/her in the same capacity.
  4. According to circular released by RBI on June 22, the transactions which banks should include in passbooks are as follows: Payment to third parties: i) Name of the payee (ii) Mode- Transfer, clearing, inter-branch, RTGS/ NEFT, cash, cheque (number) (iii) Name of the transferee bank, if the payment is made through clearing/ inter-branch transaction/ RTGS/ NEFT.
  5. Payment to ‘self’: This should indicate “Self” as payee. The name of the ATM/ branch if the payment is made by ATM/ another branch
  6. Reversal of wrong credits will need to have the date of the original credit entry reversed and reasons for reversal, in brief.
  7. Cash deposit: It should be indicated that it is a “cash deposit”. It would require name of the depositor i.e. self or third party
  8. Interest on deposits: (i) Mention if it is interest paid on the Savings Account/ Fixed Deposit (ii) Mention the respective Fixed Deposit Account/ Receipt Number if it is interest paid on Fixed Deposit(s).
  9. Bank charges: i) Nature of the charges – fee/ commission/ fine/ penalty etc. (ii) Reasons for the charges, in brief – e.g. return of cheque (number), commission/ fee on draft issued/ remittance (draft number), cheque collection charge (number), issuance of cheque book, SMS alerts, ATM fees, additional cash withdrawals, etc.
  10. Receipt from third parties: (i) Name of the remitter/ transferor (ii) Mode-Transfer, inter-branch, RTGS/ NEFT, cash, etc. (iii) Name of the transferor bank, if the payment is received through inter-branch transaction, RTGS/ NEFT
  11. Maturity proceeds of fixed deposit/ recurring deposit: i) Name of the Fixed Deposit/ Recurring Deposit holder (ii) Fixed Deposit/ Recurring Deposit account/ receipt number (iii) Date of maturity

Happy Investing
Source:Yahoofinance.com

How mutual funds can help you plan for various life goals?


How mutual funds can help you plan for various life goals?

Mutual funds are a way for savers to put their money to work in asset classes of their choice



Any person who is in in employment or a business or profession has a steady source of income even if that income is moderate to start with and would be expected to grow as one progresses. As Indians we have always had a strong saving culture as part of our DNA, and the individual starts saving part of that income, traditionally in bank deposits or other relatively safe avenues which one is comfortable with.



However, besides deposits, there are many other assets or instruments where one can put one’s savings like equity shares of companies, government debt, corporate debt, shares of global companies and so on. A saver who looks only at traditional instruments like deposits to put his money is like a diner who goes to a buffet and sticks only to soup, and ignores all other dishes on the menu.



Just as a combination of different dishes on the menu go to make a balanced diet, a combination of different asset classes makes a balanced portfolio while adding to the overall returns (or experience, in the diner analogy). This is true especially as each asset class brings its own strengths to the table. As an example, equity has given good returns over the long term (the BSE Sensex has given CAGR returns of 14.6 percent pa over the past 27 years as on 15th June 2017 , debt has given decent returns with limited volatility in the past 15-20 years. While these different asset classes bring their own strengths to the table, it is often not possible for the average individual to choose and invest in these assets directly.



Mutual funds are a way for savers to put their money to work in asset classes of their choice. Mutual funds are pass through vehicles, and as such there can be as many types of mutual funds as there are asset types. While the advantages of mutual funds are well known, it is worth repeating them which are: access to professional managers at a low cost, liquidity (they can be redeemed any time), a high degree of scrutiny from regulators ensuring investors’ interest is protected, transparency (full portfolio disclosure, all costs etc.), ease of use, low minimum investment and flexibility in terms of the wide variety of options available. The wide choices enable the investor to build a portfolio to meet a financial goal that he/ she might have.



A young investor with a stable income and many years to invest may feel comfortable taking risk to achieve greater return investing primarily in equity funds. This can be a wealth creation goal as sustained investing has the potential to build a substantial corpus over the long term. A mid-career investor trying to balance risk and return more moderately can invest in a mix of equity and debt, or in a balanced fund. This mix will also lead to wealth creation but with lower risk and correspondingly lower return.



A good product that is available for investors with moderate risk appetite is the dynamic equity fund which varies its equity exposure depending on how expensive or cheap the market is. This enables the fund to buy low and sell high which preserves returns when the markets are high and reduces the volatility of the portfolio while giving returns which may be broadly aligned to the equity market returns. This product is a good fit for mid-career investors who want to have some growth in their portfolio while controlling the risk.



However, one aspect that is most important and which investors often ignore is asset allocation. As an example, suppose the best equity fund grows 20 percent in a year while the average fund grows say 15 percent. Also, assume the best debt fund grows 9 percent while the average fund grows say 7.5 percent.



A young investor who had an equity: debt allocation of 20:80 in the portfolio and had the best performing funds in his portfolio would get return of 11.2 percent for the year while another young investor who had an exposure of 60:40 for equity: debt and only had the average funds in his portfolio would get returns of 12 percent for the year. It is hence important to get advice from an investment adviser and focus on asset allocation which can be a big determinant of returns for an investor.


Happy investing
Source:Moneycontrol.com

Monday 19 June 2017

CDSL IPO .... A Must apply for Long & Short term investors Both

CDSL – a must inclusion in any demat account

The company is coming out with an offer for sale of 3.5 crore equity shares in the price band of Rs 145 – Rs 149 per share. The issue will be open to subscription from June 19 to June 21.


Moneycontrol Research


In the duopoly market of depository (NSDL and CDSL), the listing of CDSL (Central Depository Services (India) Limited) provides investors with an opportunity to participate in the steady, stable, high entry- barrier business. While CDSL (promoted by The Bombay Stock Exchange) prima facie is the smaller of the two depositories and a late entrant in the business, it has been able to recoup lost ground and has been beating its competition in incremental business. Besides depository, the company has diversified into other revenue stream. The steady financials and attractive valuation makes it a must addition in every demat account.


The Issue


The company is coming out with an offer for sale of 3.5 crore equity shares in the price band of Rs 145 – Rs 149 per share. The issue will be open to subscription from 19th June to 21st June. At the upper end of the price band, the issue size is Rs 524 crore (QIB 50%, Non-institutional 15% and Retail 35%). At this price, the post issue market capitalisation works out to Rs 1557 crore.


Out of the Rs 524 crore offer – 77% will go to BSE, 14% to SBI, 3% to Bank of Baroda and 3% to Calcutta Stock Exchange.


The Business


CDSL offers dematerialization for a wide range on securities like equity shares, preference shares, mutual fund units, debt instruments and government securities. The company has over 12.4 million Beneficial Owner (BO) accounts and 589 registered Depository Participants (DP) spread over 17,000 service centres across India.
For the corporates, CDSL offers facilities to credit securities to a shareholder or applicants demat account. The other services include KYC (know your customer) services in respect of investors in capital markets to capital market intermediaries. Another facility offered by the Company allows holding of insurance policies in electronic form to the holders of these insurance policies of various insurance companies.

CDSL provides online services such as e-voting, e-locker, National Academy Depository, electronic access to security information (easi), electronic access to security information and execution of secured transaction (easiest) drafting and preparation of wills for succession (myeasiwill) and mobile application (myeasi, m-voting) and transactions using secured texting (TRUST).
The Company has been shortlisted as a GST Suvidha Provider (GSP) to GST Network Limited (“GSTN”), a Government of India initiative for recording all filings pertaining to the Goods and Services Tax. The Company is also in the process of setting up a Warehouse Repository.

CDSL deserves a serious look on account of multiple tailwinds.

Stable Revenue: CDSL has multiple sources of stable and recurring operating revenue. Fixed annual charges collected from registered companies and transaction-based fees collected from its DPs provide stable operating revenue. The company is looking at incremental new DP relationships from Tier I and tier II cities.

The company generates additional revenue from corporates through e-notices, e-voting etc. In addition, the services rendered by subsidiaries like CDSL Ventures and CDSL Insurance offer additional income.

Foray into new businesses: CDSL endeavours to provide comprehensive range of services. It has three subsidiaries - CDSL Venture, CDSL Insurance Repository and CDSL Commodity Repository. Starting from KYC services, insurance policies in demat form to getting registered as a GSP, Warehouse repository and National Academic Repository, the initiatives in newer areas speak volume and should start getting reflected as meaningful earnings in the future.

Gaining market share despite its late start: Notwithstanding its late start (1999 compared to NSDL’s 1996), the company has been showing a healthy growth. While its overall share of revenue at 43% is lower compared to its competitor, its market share in incremental demat accounts is 60%.

Favourable macro drivers: Rising per capita income, increasing literacy, India’s demographic dividend with a large working age population and lower dependency ratio and the steady shift in savings from physical to financial are some of the strong macro drivers for a steady future growth of depositories.

Steady Financials: The Company enjoys extremely healthy margins thanks to stable revenue, lower operating costs and benefits of economies of scale. The key elements of costs are wages & employee benefits and software development & maintenance. The faster growth in BO accounts, therefore, has aided margins. The company follows a direct DP connection through centralized database system that ensures relatively low initial setup costs and minimal incremental costs.

Attractive Valuation:
While theoretically there is possibility of competition, however, in reality the chances of a third entrant in this business is remote. Any business reliant on technology do carry technological risks and CDSL is not immune to the same.

However, in the long history of the company, there hasn’t been any occasion of serious technological disruption. The business model and the healthy financials makes the valuation at 18X FY17 earnings extremely attractive.


Happy Investing
Source:Moneycontrol.com

Friday 16 June 2017

Understanding How The Indian Cement Industry Works


UNderstanding How The Indian Cement Industry Works


Basics of Cement Industry

  • Cement can be sold to two sets of customershttps://www.alphainvesco.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/cement-industry.jpg
    • Retail Customer – Trade Segment – Has Higher Margins
    • Infra Customer – Non Trade Segment – Has Lower Margins

  • As far as the retail customer is concerned – cement is a push market industry – so whoever is able to push its product first to the customer, will be able to successfully sell it.

The reason being – at the end Cement is a commodity. 

A layman doesn’t differentiate between different brands. The lead sales influencer is the mason and the shopkeeper.

He goes to buy Cement only when he immediately needs it, and will buy whichever is immediately available. So it is important for a manufacturer that he is able to successfully push his product on the shelf of shopkeeper (ship it on time) and incentivise the shopkeeper enough (discount and commission) so that he sells your product.

  • Sales Price is determined based on demand and supply. It’s a dynamic pricing market.
  • Cement is a bulky material – hence handling this bulky material takes a lot of effort. It occupies a lot of space and carries a lot of weight. Hence higher the distance a cement bag travels, higher is the freight and handling cost involved and lower is the profit a manufacturer makes.

Therefore it is important that the manufacturer keeps his production unit as close as close as possible to the end customer.

  • Cement is basically is made by heating limestone (calcium carbonate) with small quantities of other materials to 1450°C in a kiln. The resultant hard material which is recovered after heating limestone and chemicals is called ‘Clinker’.https://www.alphainvesco.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/cement-clinker.jpg
  • Clinker looks like small lumps. These lumps are crushed with a small amount of gypsum into a powdery form – which gives the final product – ‘OPC Cement’.




So in essence following components are compulsory for making OPC cement

  • Limestone – Natural Reserve, extracted or mined from Mines
  • Heat – requires heat of 1450°C , ideally obtained from Coal or its variants.
  • Gypsum –a mineral compulsory for providing the binding nature to cement

However with time, people figured out that limestone can be substituted with other materials namely Flyash or Slag, which will still provide the strength but to a lesser extent. The threshold limit of mixing Flyash is maximum 33%

For big infra projects, limestone component of upto 95% is required, but for the daily homebuilding use, the lower component limestone works fine enough.





  • Thus, there are various varieties of Cement depending on the composition of materials, namely OPC (Ordinary Portland Cement), PPC (Portland Pozzolana Cement) and PSC (Portland Slag Cement (PSC).

 

Items
OPC
PPC
PSC
Clinker
95%
65%
45%
Gypsum
5%
5%
5%
Flyash
30%
Slag
50%
Total
100%
100%
100%
Margin profile for manufacturer
Lowest Margin
Higher Margin
Highest Margin

  • Flyash is a by-product of Thermal Power Production. Most power producers want to dispose of fly-ash and one of the ways is by selling it to cement manufacturers who can substitute it for lime-stone in the cement making process. Similarly slag is a by-product of Steel making process and is often sold to cement makers as a substitute for lime-stone in the cement making process.

Cement manufacturers often try to keep their plant near to a power plant, because neither slag nor flyash can be transported across long distance. You have to be near to a steel or power plant to use Flyash or Slag in the production process.




Cost Structure Of A Cement Company

https://www.alphainvesco.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/cost-structure-cement.png

*Please note that the above rates are indicative and can change if the Market or the product is different.




So If A Cement Bag of Rs. 350 Rs is sold

  • Indirect Taxes levied by the government form almost Rs. 75/ bag – Not to mention there are other taxes which are levied during the manufacturing stage such as Entry Tax, Cement Cess, Royalty etc
  • Dealer Margins typically are around Rs. 40/Bag (Rs. 25 as discounts and and Rs 15 as markup to customer)
  • Handling of Finished Goods costs almost Rs. 50/Bag
  • Manufacturing Cost is almost Rs. 155/Bag
  • In the end, a manufacturer earns Rs. 30/Bag on a Cement Bag which has MRP of 350




How Does A Cement Manufacturer Optimize His Profits

  • Given the fact that it is a commodity industry, with little or no differentiation in the end product – how does one manufacturer make a higher profit than his peers? Well let’s look at the formula

Sales – Govt Taxes – Discount – Freight – Manufacturing Cost = Profit

https://www.alphainvesco.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/financials-cement.png




How To Maximize Sales

  • So basically a manufacturer has to ensure that he realises maximum sales price. This he can do by :
    • Selling in markets with Best Prices – Demand Supply Mismatch creates better. If competition sets up a new plant in your market, the mismatch reduces and price falls.
    • Trying to sell high margin products such as PPC and PSC – You have to be near the source of Flyash or Slag to be able to do this
    • Higher Volumes – Better the demand in the market , higher the volumes
    • Better branding – Since it is a commodity – You need to ensure that brand recall is high when customer goes for buying the product.
    • Set up additional capacity
    • Maintain the quality of the Product, Home building services
    • Incentives schemes for Clearing and Forwarding Agents and Dealers




Manufacturing Costs

Limestone

  • To make cement you have to first make clinker.
    • So a plant has to first make Clinker
    • Then Grind the Clinker with Gypsum to make Cement

  • Limestone is the pre-requisite to make Clinker. Limestone is extracted from Mines. A company that has its own mines is at an advantageous position than the one which doesn’t have mines. Limestone cannot be traded, so a company which has no mines cannot make clinker.
  • However limestone is a natural resource and more than 65% of India’s limestone comes from five states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.
  • So companies have two options
    • Make cement in the areas where limestone is available and the ship the finished good to those parts of country that want cement, or
    • Make only Clinker in the state where limestone is available, and then do the grinding of clinker in the region which requires cement.

A unit which does both grinding and clinker manufacturing is called an Integrated Unit.  A unit that does only grinding work is called Grinding Unit.

  • It may so happen that a company makes Clinker and directly sells it to another player who dies, but these situations are rare.
  • Mines are normally allotted through government auction and are leased to a company for time periods extending upto 99 years. After expiry of the lease term, the mines are again re-auctioned. Some companies like ACC have old legacy mines, allotted in 1960s with lease period of 99 years.

It also depends what amount of limestone reserves you have in the mines. Higher the reserves in your mines, better the prospects of your plant. Typically 1.5 Tones of Limestone, gives 1 ton of Clinker. Output from Clinker to Cement, depends on the blend of cement being manufactured (OPC, PPC or PSC)

  • If the quality of limestone procured from mines is not of correct quality, then a company has to add chemicals (Correctives) to make Clinker of desired quality.




Note:
 –  Since mines are allotted by Government, they typically give a right of mining (by charging a hefty sum). Companies capitalise this amount as an Intangible Asset. Hence an analyst can quickly check the Intangible Assets Section in Balance Sheet to know if a company has a limestone mine.
 – This Intangible is depreciated on the basis of Quantity of Limestone extracted as a proportion of Actual Quantity of Reserves existing. So an analyst can actually do a reverse calculation to judge the life and quantity of reserves a company has in their mines.




Heat

  • High Temperature heat is the next biggest requirement in the manufacturing process
  • This high temperature can ordinarily be obtained only from Coal or Petcoke.

  •  

    • Coal can be procured from open market – generally costly, or
    • Cheaper coal can be obtained through Government tendering – government rations a quota of cheap coal to each industry, or
    • Petcoke can be substituted for coal – which is less costly than Coal – but reduces the life of plant – and increases maintenance costs
    • Use of Alternate Fuel and new trend in the industry, like Rick Husk, Liquid Solvent, TDI Tar, Etc.
    • Waste Heat Recovery is a mechanism which can lead to huge cost savings in Fuel cost.

https://www.alphainvesco.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/cement-manufacturing-process.png




Parameters To Judge / Analyse A Cement Company

Housing forms 65% of the cement demand in India and hence this is the biggest demand driver. Housing has been growing at a steady modest pace even during lean period. The infrastructure sector adds or restricts the much needed growth.So one needs to judge uptick in demand and more specifically, the demand supply mismatch in the Micro Market where the Cement player is located.

Demand Scenario

  • As a metric, analysts should check the expected demand growth in the micro market and if anything is being done on housing or infra sector in the micro market, which can provide boost to volumes.
  • Whether competition is setting up new capacity in the company’s region of operation? It is normally observed that whenever a new player enters the micro market, they capture market share (through better incentives) thus restricting volume growth of existing players.
  • Whether the company has maintained or increase its market share, with respect to overall demand

Prices

  • Are the overall prices in the company’s micro market, headed up or down?
  • Whether the company has a brand good enough to charge premium pricing.
  • Utilisation levels drive the price hikes – Sustainable price hikes hinges on high utilization level. Once the utilisation level starts touching 80%+, the cement manufacturers start getting a lot of pricing power. Optimal Capacity utilisation can only be driven by high infrastructure demand.

EBITDA/Ton

The best metric to measure the profitability of a cement company is EBITDA/Ton. Most corporate deals also use this as a measure of payment, and management too uses this metric to judge performance. EBITDA/Ton is a result of lot of small things done right. It starts from better pricing power and ends at better raw material costs and better overhead absorption. The following factors generally drive EBITDA/Ton

  • Whether company has better access to key raw materials viz Limestone, Coal, Petcoke, Flyash, and Power. If a company has captive access to any or all of these factors, its cost of production is reduced and realisations improve.
  • Whether company is enjoying and Government incentive schemes and for what tenure
  • Cost effectiveness in Power and Supply Chain Management.
  • Larger the player, higher is his bargaining power with suppliers. So one should judge whether the company is big enough to negotiate better with vendors.

An analyst should basically check, how much EBITDA growth does he expect and what is the market building in?




Why Balance sheet Of A Cement Company Is Important 

  • Cement is a capex Heavy Business. The ROAs of a cement plant is close to 1. So a Cement plant with 5000 Crores of Capex can typically do a turnover of 5000 Crores only.
  • Hence it is important, that not only does the company set up a plant in the best market (which offers best prices), it should also ensure that cost of setting up the plant is cheapest.
  • Further since the Cost of Setting up a plant is high; it can either be done by
  • Taking debt or
  • Through Internal Accruals

In both the cases, it is important that company should generate enough Free Cash Flows else they will not be able to service the debt or set up additional new capacities in future.

  • Size and spread of a company also matters because
    • It allows a company to negotiate better with suppliers,
    • More a company is spread across India, more can it minimise the freight costs and serve a higher market – thus creating a even bigger brand.
  • Working capital management and cash from operation are vital metrics to judge in this regard
Happy Investing
Source:Alphainvesco.com